Τετάρτη 19 Αυγούστου 2015

HISTORICAL ANALYSIS How we arrived at "unfortunately eptochefsamen" - Trikoupis, lenders, the debt crisis and the lessons of the past

The December 10, 1893, for most Greeks means nothing. Yet on this day, actually started wandering the modern Greek state in the constellation of ... bankruptcies.

Charilaos Trikoupis, from the floor of the House, announced the historic "unfortunately eptochefsamen" closing thus a chapter of Greek history that includes: a course-indebtedness, budget deficits, Ruthless speculation by foreign and Greek lenders interventions the superpowers of the time on behalf of their bankers, bondholders nationals geopolitical games, and plenty of background on the Greek political scene.
The truth is that the bankruptcy of 1893 resembles in many respects the current crisis. The reasons that caused it, the role of the foreign factor, political maneuvers inside, the attitude of foreign lenders and support from their governments, the role and attitude of the Greek capitalists, foreign technocrats and the impact on living standards the Greeks have much in common with today's dire economic situation. Let's take things in order:
How we arrived at "unfortunately eptochefsamen" - Trikoupis, lenders, the debt crisis and the lessons of the past
The Greek economy before the declaration of bankruptcy had been in the throes of a global economic recession that began in 1871. The international crisis had three focal points: the crisis of France, in the years 1882-1884, the crisis of the railways in the USA and the crisis Baringk in England. The impact on Greece was similar to those recorded in the recent debt crisis: there was crisis in the external balance, which then turned into a fiscal crisis then turned into a debt crisis. The budget deficit for a decade (1883-1893) was financed through borrowing. In fact, by borrowing supermassive funded the possibilities of Greek economy, government spending and investment, and the service costs of the public debt. In short, the financing of the deficit was transferred in this way for future generations.
There they saw the lenders problems? It is the reasonable question for any benevolent reader. The answer in this case is not much different than the one currently in force. In the global capital market, by 1870 there was excess liquidity, while the Greek loans offered incomparably better conditions than those prevailing in the market. For example, in the period 1879-1893 awarded nine loans totaling (nominal value) 640 million gold francs. The price publications but was at 72.68% of par value, resulting in Greek funds to come 465.200.00 million. At the same time, the nominal interest rate was 4-6% (apparently low, but with the inclusion of the difference between nominal and real issue price was usurious). In this way, lenders took back their initial capital in 10 years and the rest (the duration of the loans were 75-100 years) had net profit.
How we arrived at "unfortunately eptochefsamen" - Trikoupis, lenders, the debt crisis and the lessons of the past
Lenders
What were the lenders? Foreigners and Greeks. There were intermediaries, mainly Greeks projecting a current national benefactor: A. Syggros. From strangers stood out the "HAMBRO and son" of London, Copmtoir dEscompte de Paris (where he was playing, and another Greek, A. Vlastos) and finally the German National bank fur Deutschland Berlin. Beyond the game entered occasionally: Societe Generale, Bangue General d Egypte, Bangue de Paris et des Payw-Bas (the three French), Antiny Gibbs and Son (UK) and Bleicaroden (German). There were Greek capitalists, both in Greece and abroad, who even bought Greek bonds from abroad, to ensure the guarantees enjoyed by foreigners and which was more powerful than those who had domestic bondholders. Of course, the model of borrowing could not last indefinitely.
How we arrived at "unfortunately eptochefsamen" - Trikoupis, lenders, the debt crisis and the lessons of the past
 A report (like this one from Eurostat in 2010) opened a Pandora's box and sped bankruptcy. This is the report of the British Law attaché to the Minister of Foreign Affairs, which was produced in April 1893 and which among other things pointed to the country's economic situation. This was the culmination of a silent war with a political background, interweaving, interventions of foreign factor, competition from international lenders, who were succeeded by the bankruptcy.
Debt Service
Already since 1891 the Greek state was facing debt servicing problems. The French lenders, having as a spearhead Greeks A. Vlastos and A. Syggros demanded they be given against the debt the privilege of establishing the "Bank of the State", which would seignorage (ie money creation) and the monopoly right to recover certain public revenues towards debt. The government refused Diligianni and then started speculation against the Greek drachma and bonds. In three months, the value of Greek bonds in the international financial markets fell 10-12%. Syngros proceeded further. He submitted a memorandum to King George, in which he said that the Government was leading Greece to "economic disaster" and therefore should be reversed. King persuaded, called for the resignation of the government, but the government not only resigned, but secured the confidence of Parliament. And George the ceased in February 1892. Of course, there were Trojan horses with the sign of new political forces.
Elections and Trikoupis
The name "Third Party" and supporter and financier of the Syngros and his team. Indeed, executives of the given mandate to form a government with the obvious purpose of helping the shoots and Syggros. Elections were finally on 3 May 1892, won by Trikoupis, who used the slogan "Escape to the front." And while on the domestic political scene, the intensity and polarization culminated with the austerity program were based on over-taxation and shrinking incomes and consumption, lenders had begun a war. The British were prepared to grant new loans to support Trikoupis. Unlike the French, sought bankruptcy to easily implement their plans for the "Bank of the State" and to gain control over state property. The Government of Trikoupis, agreed with the English side, sent a technocrat-evaluator to check the viability of the Greek economy. The French reacted and managed to send their own evaluator. The English reviewer, Edward Lo, advised that the Greek economy has sound foundations. The French, Roy, contested the opinion of Lo and carved out a new strategy: within accusing Trikoupis as chalkefti and foreign stock were spreading that "Greece allegedly inevitably to chreokopian".
The other solution ...
The speculation abroad moved to Greece, where members of the "Third Party" began to say that there is no other solution than bankruptcy. Nevertheless, the English capitalists agreed to finance the debt, providing a loan of £ 3,500,000 and requiring Leos terms, culminating in the loan agreement should not be ratified by the House, but by the King! Syngros and company of French, spoken to the king, with the argument that if you sign sets the challenging requirements of national sovereignty, the king was persuaded not signed and Trikoupis resigned. The Third Party, a creation of the French, was used again, but things did not go as expected if the Syngros and French friends. Prime Minister S.. Sotiropoulos, not wishing to be charged on bankruptcy and the stigma agent of French interests, had contact with the English of the Hambro for effective debt restructuring.
The English would give him a loan with which to capitalized arrears coupons of 1881 loans in 1884, 1889 and 1890. In other words, the confessions of those loans maturing on July 1, 1895, will be paid for by bonds of the new loan. For the convenience of the granted to British creditors of revenue: direct taxes, charges (consular, anchoring and lighthouses) and the rights of the Greek State. It was a practice that had been applied two years earlier by Argentina, which was and is in crisis. The French began to talk about "fraudulent bankruptcy", the famous markets devalue the Greek bonds. The system lasted six months before collapsing, dragging with him and the government Sotiropoulos (10/28/1893). The mandate given to Trikoupis, who canceled the loan and turned back to the markets. The official announcement of bankruptcy, had become matter of a few weeks. On December 10, Trikoupis from the floor of the House said the famous: "Unfortunately eptochefsamen". Trikoupis announced "haircut" of coupons by 70% and implement austerity program merciless taxation. In international exchanges, the value of Greek bonds collapsed and institutional leaders of the countries of the lenders, began the war ....
Debasement
The threats were phenomenal, with the prominent German Emperor Kaiser Wilhelm, who looked forward to winning over Turkey through the Greek humiliation! The most disparate alliances formed inside. Opposition parties rallied in a united front. King "loved" Diligianni. The representatives of the French, the Syngros and Vlastos, "loved" the Germans. One directorate in the country and Trikoupis erected in Paris, led by Branch. Demonstrations in Athens succeeded one another and Trikoupis in the House ... vote bills. In one of them, it appeared the Crown Prince Constantine -those who crashed a few decades after the El. Venizelos and caused national disunity. This caused the reaction of Trikoupi and the resignation of his government. The first bankruptcy of the independent Greek state was completed

Δεν υπάρχουν σχόλια:

Δημοσίευση σχολίου