Die Welt: These are Schauble's tricks for Greece

"These are Schauble's tricks to save Greece" is the unusually sharp Welt title, which quotes the analytical background for the Eurogroup on Monday.

The columnist says he has at his disposal the experts' calculations in Brussels and Washington on the evolution of the Greek economy in the coming decades and argues that "the European Commission and the IMF are so far apart in the assumptions and the results of the calculations So they wonder if their analyzes really concern the same country. "

In summary, the Commission argues that with primary surpluses of at least 3.5% over the next eight years and 2.6% on average in the coming decades, the Greek debt will fall to 50% of GDP in 2060. The IMF considers unrealistic predictions for high Surpluses and sees debt to 226% in 2060, unless debt is cut.

According to the columnist, "in 2017, it is not like in previous years, when it was the stakes for the Greeks to come back on line with as drastic measures as possible, so that the Italians will see what is waiting for them, if they do not finally start the reforms. 2017 is the super-election year in Europe. No one in the federal government - or Schauble - needs a repetition of the Greek crisis after the Brexit referendum in 2016. That is why the Finance Minister would have preferred to close the deal with Athens, with one condition: that the IMF would Remain. And that a European debt will be released at the earliest after the German elections, if it is to be done. "

In addition to the "European Commission scenario" and the "IMF line", there was - and had already been discussed in the last Eurogroup - a third, compromise scenario, which Handelsblatt had revealed: "Sieble gives assurance that he will describe from now on Details, possible debt facilities, even if they are not implemented before 2018. For example, the repayment period for loans already disbursed by the European Support Facility (EFSF) could be extended for another 15 years. In return, the IMF would give a formal promise to participate in the third program, under one condition: it will not disburse money unless the debt sustainability is clarified. What sounds like a solution to the problem is above all a smart move on the chessboard, a shift of the problem in time, a trick in a nutshell. (?) Schauble could claim in the German Parliament that the IMF has finally committed itself to participating in the aid program. The IMF, for its part, would have promised nothing more than what it says in the last two years. Solution would not have been found, however ".

And the article concludes: "That the Greeks did not agree with this deal against them can not surprise anyone. Tsipras needs success so he can pass the big cut package he has just adopted. (?) Debt mowing would be such a success. And if it can not come as fast as the Greek Prime Minister would like, a good alternative would be to participate in the ECB's quantitative easing program. In which, however, the Greeks can not join, if the viability of the debt is not confirmed. A condition would be the agreement of all those involved in the EU's sustainability analysis. But the Schweiz-IMF agreement does not offer the Greeks any of the two alternatives. "

Source: Deutsche Welle